Further AnalysisAny connection between the Shaw family and our Chapman descendants line must occur with — or prior to — the most recent common ancestors of the group: George Henry Francis Chapman (1846-1899) and Emily Susannah Whiting (1854-1887), and so their connection to the Shaw line can be no more immediate than 3 generations prior to AH, such that the member of the Shaw family was of childbearing age between 1846 and 1854.
As discussed in our first case study, our Shaw family was based in London after 1800. Among other considerations, this knowledge may assist us later in determining which Chapman/Whiting ancestor connects best with the Shaw family.
Doing the MathLet’s start with our Shaw family inheritance tree, with linkages relative to AH:
However, because we know that the member of the Shaw line from whom AH is descended must have been of childbearing age between 1846 and 1854, we can immediately remove any hypothesis which involves a Shaw born after 1830, simplifying our model considerably:
Likewise, the “unknown sibling” marked as a descendant of the Shaw/Jones couple at the left end of the diagram can be removed, as no other children of John Shaw (1774-1819) and Susannah Jones (1781-1859) were living as of 1846. This leaves us with the following hypotheses:
Finally, when considering the line of hypotheses 15 through 22 we can rule out 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, and 22 because the number of generations involved doesn’t work with our dates. Hypothesis 17 presupposes that Susannah (Jones) Shaw (1781-1859) gave birth in either 1846 or 1854, which is impossible.
Hypothesis 18 would require either John Shaw (1774-1819) or Susannah to be a grandparent of George Henry Francis Chapman or Emily Susannah Whiting. This seems particularly unlikely as one of the four Chapman/Whiting parents was born after John Shaw died, and none of the three individuals for whom there exists reliable birth information were born in Westminster, where the Shaws lived. Nevertheless, we’ll leave Hypothesis 18 in place for the time being. This reduces our final set of possibilities to:
What this suggests is that either George Henry Francis Chapman or Emily Susannah Whiting was the child of John Shaw. This, in and of itself, isn’t surprising inasmuch as John Shaw is known to have fathered another child prior to his 1864 marriage. What remains is to determine which ancestor — George or Emily — were actually John’s child.
Though not a tool by which one would build a tree, Ancestry’s Thrulines feature, which aggregates DNA matches with member trees, casts the deciding vote in this case. The Thrulines for MB, AH’s 2nd cousin, reveal a shared a DNA match with a 4th cousin once removed — a member descended from George Chapman’s father’s sister, Harriet Chapman (1822-1887) — with whom MB shares 19 cM linkage. Since AH and his family group genuinely share DNA with George Chapman’s father’s family, the only possible conclusion is that Emily Susannah Whiting is the heretofore-unknown daughter of John Shaw. Our master inheritance chart for the Shaw family line now becomes: